Why we’re constructive on oil
Not many investors have been bullish on the price of oil recently, but Allianz Global Investors has had a constructive view of the industry for the past 12-18 months. Now that both members and non-members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have renewed their commitment to limit production in an attempt to boost prices, it’s a good time to review the prospects for oil. Here are five reasons why we think the price of oil will turn around – and why investors should consider positioning themselves to take advantage of the opportunity.
1. Global demand for oil is reassuringly stable
Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its predictions for oil-demand growth in 2017 from 1.4 million barrels per day to 1.3 million, global demand has remained reassuringly stable. At the end of 2016, the world consumed slightly more than 97 million barrels per day, making the IEA’s modest downward revision look relatively inconsequential and still representative of healthy growth. At the same time, oil inventories have been decreasing and global economic growth is buoyant. Taken together, these factors should underpin a steady demand for oil despite higher prices.
It is important to note that a rising oil price has a downside as well, given that it functions as a tax on consumers and the global economy in general. Higher prices may crimp consumer spending and drive inflation through the economy. This effect can be amplified by currency movements globally, particularly given that oil is often priced in US dollars. For example, the post-Brexit fall in the British pound had the effect of re-pricing oil to the equivalent of $70 per barrel by the time it reached consumers at the pump.
Read more at Advisor Perspectives.
Photo: Ed Schipul